I really love this time of year. Especially with temperatures in Wisconsin reaching 70 degrees, the travel season has slowed down significantly and you can see more basketball. Even better, right here in the middle of the Corn Belt, you can see arguably the greatest basketball player of all time (perhaps the best harvest in Iowa State history).
This basketball season has been very different for me. Instead of sitting on the bench and coaching, I watched my youngest daughter play in March Madness. She is a freshman at the University of Wisconsin-Whitewater, who finished her season Saturday night in the Elite Eight of the Division III NCAA Tournament.
As expected, you find yourself deeply involved in your team as a parent. I was literally mentally exhausted after their last game. During that time, I went from nervous to excited to nervous again to angry and finally disappointed. I've been obsessed with their tournament run for the past few weeks. So when I sat down to write about the grain market, I found myself looking at the correlation between basketball players and the producers who sell grain.
I address this correlation from a fan's perspective. Because that's what I am now. I look at superstitious fans like my point guard's mother, who had to sit in the same spot and wear the same socks for every game. How many growers are selling their grain the same way or at the same time because it worked last time or because they've always done it that way?
I am not discounting the use of consistent or successful marketing techniques in a marketing plan. I'm talking about producers who store grain just because they have a bin, or who never take advantage of the option because it “didn't work.” I myself like to be superstitious from time to time because I don't want superstitious people to blame me for my losses. However, decisions must be justified. Don't leave farm decisions to chance.
It has been said many times that basketball is a “running game.” A good, fast-paced basketball game is always filled with moments of repeated success for the team you're rooting for, and you'll often see the opposing team do the same.
On Saturday, I experienced some of the emotions that all producers go through as I watched my team lead by one point in the first half and fall behind by 13 points in the third quarter. They went on a 10-0 run in the fourth quarter, but were unable to hold on, and the final “run” belonged to the Pioneers (not the Warhawks).
There have been memorable price increases in the market, such as grain in 2012, and more recently the $9 soybean price increase and $4 corn price increase in 2020/21. In the middle of some of these runs, we're seeing incredible streaks like we saw with the March 2022 to December 2023 corn contract. Unlike watching the aforementioned GOAT break NCAA scoring records, this move didn't get much hype. It rose slowly and steadily for 22 consecutive trading sessions.
We will always endure tough times as well as good times. How do you react when he commits his third consecutive turnover that ends the season after the team cuts the lead to three with his four minutes left?
Wouldn't it be nice to have a tool that you can use during the good times of a game or season to keep the bad times from getting too out of control?Last June, when the corn and soybean markets recovered to their trading prices at the beginning of the year Please remember. Have you considered calling a timeout and implementing a strategy to protect your lead?
I've made a comparison between basketball and grain marketing, and we all know how emotional both can be. We've spent a lot of time discussing how emotions can make people indecisive.
Since grains are currently in the midst of small-scale production activity, it is a good idea to take a “time out” and put together a plan that creates some calls to action.
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Place a sell order when you can make a profit.
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Once the sale is achieved, place an order to repossess the grain.
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Consider playing zone. Buy some put options.
Every team is a little different, so make sure you have the right strategy that fits your team's strengths.
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