When will the first American university set tuition fees above $100,000, and what will it mean for higher education?
I first asked this question in 2018, and I said it with a bit of irony. My intention six years ago was to explore symbolic landmarks, milestones, in higher education finance. It was a radical idea, given that the overwhelming majority of campuses would never charge such amounts, and that many students at the most expensive institutions would never pay such amounts because tuition discounting was widespread. Besides, there is no objective difference in charging $98,000 versus $99,000 versus $100,000. These are increments, margins. But the eye-watering six-figure amounts have the advantage of providing insight into the economics of elite campuses. Examining them might also reveal something about how our culture responds to them.
As I mentioned, I blogged about this idea back in 2018 and have followed up on it fairly regularly since then, in 2021, 2022, and 2023. I roughly project that the most expensive colleges will cross the $100,000 per year barrier around the 2026-2027 academic year, though inflation over the last year has adjusted my estimate slightly, putting at least one college over the barrier in 2025-26.
What is happening now?
Here are the published prices for the most expensive US universities for next academic year (2024-2025), listed from most expensive to least expensive. These are undergraduate prices; graduate prices tend to be higher. They also do not reflect the higher fees charged to international students, who also tend to have higher tuition fees. I am using the official figures posted on the university websites.
Let’s start by looking at universities with total tuition fees over $90,000.
University of Southern California: $95,225
Northwestern University: $94,878 ($86,397 for resident assistantship, $76,674 for commuting with a relative)
Colorado College: $94,866 ($91,154 if student waives campus health insurance)
Vanderbilt University, $94,051 (my calculations; totals not listed on page)
New York University: $93,184 ($74,932 for commuter students)
Harvey Mudd College $93,131
Wesleyan University – $92,994 (freshman/$92,694 (continuing students))
Stanford University: $92,892
Vassar College $92,580
Washington University in St. Louis $92,523
University of Pennsylvania: $92,288 ($91,474 if living off-campus, $76,076 if living with family)
Cornell University $92,150
Wellesley College $92,060
Amherst College: $91,930 (does not include personal expenses or travel costs; assumes health and tuition insurance are not waived)
Brown University $91,676
Claremont McKenna College $91,510
Dartmouth College $91,312
Wake Forest University $91,266
Kenyon College $91,010
Yale University: $90,975
California Institute of Technology: $90,822 ($94,380 more if you live off campus, $82,878 less if you live with your parents)
Barnard College $90,928
Boston University $90,207
Franklin & Marshall College $90,079
Just for the record, there are currently around two dozen (at least) American universities with annual tuition fees exceeding $90,000.
Just behind them is another tier of campuses charging fees of $80,000 and up.
Haverford College $89,568
Duke University $88,938
Boston College $88,632
Tulane University: $88,266 (listed as “$88,266+”)
Lewis and Clark College: $88,015 ($84,128 if health insurance is waived)
Reed College $87,010
Sarah Lawrence College $86,758
Carnegie Mellon University $86,812
Carleton University $86,478
Princeton University: $86,700
Williams College $85,820
Swarthmore College $85,802
Oberlin College School of Music $85,496
Harvard University provides limited figures across both tiers, saying, “Total billed and unbilled fees are $86,366 to $91,166.” Colby College follows suit, with brackets saying, “$89,240 to $90,490.”
Some currently very expensive campuses have not published next year's tuition figures, or have not published them as far as I could find. The University of Chicago's treasurer's page lists “Undergraduate Tuition and Fees for 2024-25 (unavailable).” Columbia University only shows this year's. Tufts University is tricky; their website only seems to list data for 2023-2024 (for example), except for a page about international students (another example). A recent article in the student newspaper puts Tufts' numbers for the next academic year at $92,167, etc. A Boston station thought the figure was higher, $95,888 for international students. CNN also cited that figure. Tufts staff confirmed in an email that they have not yet posted the new figures.
Secondly, based on other figures, what can we expect over the next few years?
Let's make a basic first guess. We can assume that campus operating costs will rise. According to official data, consumer inflation has been at 3.5% over the past year. In previous posts, we put institutional price increases at roughly 4%. Last year, we raised this figure to 5% based on the trend in price increases. Using this figure, USC, the flagship campus, would charge $99,986.25 in 2025-2026, which is quite close to the $100,000 mark. Using the same basic formula, Northwestern would be at $99,621.90, Colorado College at $99,609.30, Vanderbilt at $98,753.55, etc. For the 2026-2027 school year, USC is expected to top the line at $104,985.56, followed by Northwestern University at $104,603, University of Colorado at $104,589.77 and Vanderbilt University at $103,691.23.
As I said before, this is very simple reasoning. I mixed in a lot of variables. For example, notice how high the cost of health care is as a percentage of the total cost of attendance. Health care costs are likely to rise much faster than consumer inflation, especially if the health care workforce continues to have problems retaining staff. Politically attentive readers will note that the Gaza protests have put some of the top and second-tier campuses in the spotlight. Administrators at those universities may find their endowments declining and feel the need to raise prices at a faster pace to keep their finances healthy.
As we've said before, breaking the six-figure barrier may prove to be symbolically overkill for some universities. They may take steps to cap it at $99,999 for fear of appearing too greedy or expensive. Or, universities may decide that symbolism isn't important (it's just a number) or that they can benefit from the impression that they offer an elite, luxurious service. Some universities may aspire to be the first to do so the following year and assume some kind of leadership role.
And what after that? Perhaps we will grow accustomed to six-figure fee structures in the same way that we accepted without much complaint any colleges that charged tuition fees in excess of $90,000. Fees of $104,000 and up will simply represent value. Or perhaps six-figure fees will become the new lazy river, an oft-quoted figure and cliché, symbolizing academic greed, waste, irresponsibility, or whatever other traits the speaker wants to evoke.
…And we are on our way to a new milestone: a campus with a total annual cost of attendance of $150,000.
To conclude this update, after years of posting about this idea, it seems like it's gaining traction as we approach the six-figure boundary. Last month, Josh Moody wrote a great article for Inside Higher Ed that includes my comments, links to blog posts, and discussions with Sandy Baum and Julian Treves. Moody covers a wide range of ground:
The New York Times then ran a follow-up (gift link). I will admit to having mixed feelings about the article. On the plus side, Ron Lieber focused on Vanderbilt University, did a great job digging deep and combining data with feedback from the campus. I was happy to see economists Robert Archibald (a fine guest at the Future Trends Forum) and David Feldman quoted.
Meanwhile, the Inside Higher Ed article was published on April 3rd. The Times published the article two days later on April 5th, and updated it a few days later on the 8th. There was no mention of Josh Moody's article, which can be easily found with a search. IHE is also one of the two major journals in higher education, and is widely known by everyone in the field.
Speaking of searches, a Google search for “six-figure total costs of higher education” or related terms also brings up a 2019 Atlantic article in which Alia Wong cites a contemporaneous article from the Hechinger Report that makes the following prediction:
A new analysis by education news outlet The Hechinger Report predicts that the University of Chicago's list price will exceed $100,000 by 2025, making it the first university in the United States with tuition fees in the six figures. The analysis suggests that once Chicago hits that milestone, at least a few other U.S. universities will soon follow suit, including Harvey Mudd College in California, Columbia University in New York City, and Southern Methodist University in Texas.
And given past trends in American higher education, it won't be long before six-figure prices become the norm at selective colleges.
Additionally, as you might expect, I'm a little annoyed that my series of posts on this topic weren't mentioned in the Times article, since a quick Google search brings them up. In short, I wish the Times had recognized that other people have been working on this topic, some for years.
/Coda
(Speedometer photo by Casper Kongstein)
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