- Bitcoin trading volume exceeded $50 billion the day after approval, showing growing interest in Bitcoin trading.
- Most predictions are in the six-digit range, suggesting that BTC is poised for a new ATH.
- Technical indicators showed that BTC could reach $64,307 within a few months, but on-chain indicators remain bullish.
Bitcoin's [BTC] January 10, 2024 was a historic day for cryptocurrencies, thanks to the US SEC approving all 11 spot ETFs, with prices reaching $47,467.
As you probably know, there has been a lot of hype leading up to the final resolution. Prior to this decision, many analysts were of the opinion that the outcome would either make or break BTC.
For example, ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood predicted that the price of 1 BTC could exceed $1 million by 2030.
In her paper, she said that institutional adoption of Bitcoin will be the main driver. But Wood's seemingly logical opinion was the main reason many market participants expected approval.
Bitcoin is no longer at arm’s length
Simply put, spot ETFs provide investors with exposure to Bitcoin. However, in this case, the player does not necessarily need to own his BTC.
So it's not just large institutions that could benefit from exposure. Rather, investors who do not wish to interact directly with cryptocurrencies can also participate.
Market participants believe BTC price will reach a new all-time high (ATH) as Bitcoin adoption could surge exponentially.
Notably, Bitcoin's previous ATH was $69,000 in 2021. Due to this sentiment, AMBCrypto spoke to some experts for price prediction.
The first person we had this conversation with was Ryan Grace. Grace is the head of Tastycrypto, his DeFi wallet for on-chain activities.
According to him, spot Bitcoin ETFs will be a tailwind for flows in the long run. Regarding the price, he said:
“Assuming ETFs make it easier for RIAs to gain crypto exposure for their clients, approximately $100 trillion will be managed by RIAs in the U.S. alone. Assuming 1% is allocated to Bitcoin, the price can have a significant impact.”
Additionally, AMBCrypto checked Bitcoin volume since the announcement. At the time of writing, its volume had reached $52.3 billion, a level it had avoided since the beginning of the year.
The spike in trading volume is evidence of growing interest in BTC. It was also evidence of the buying and selling of coins.
Source: Santiment
However, once the ETF begins formal trading, volume is likely to increase further. If not only price but also volume continues to grow, Bitcoin could approach $50,000.
“Delay is not denial”
For many, the Spot Bitcoin ETF is a decade behind the curve. This is because his first application was in 2013. During this time, the Winklevoss brothers commissioned the launch of the Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust. Unfortunately, it fell on deaf ears.
This latest development has sparked praise for Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss. Blockstream co-founder Adam Back, for example, praised the brothers' early work.
Congratulations @Tyler @Cameron It has been a long journey over 10 years since the first ETF application, but the ETF has finally been approved. Initially, it was expected to last several years. Thank you for your patience.It's good to see too @Gemini join the mix as an administrator of @vaneck_us Spot ETF.
— Adam Back (@adam3us) January 11, 2024
However, this launch was not without controversy. On January 9, AMBCrypto reported how the SEC's X account was hacked, and Chairman Gary Gensler clarified that the initial post about the approval did not come from the regulator.
Meanwhile, recent revelations revealed that Gensler voted in favor of confirmation. In his statement, he noted that Grayscale's victory over the SEC influenced his own decision, even though he is not a supporter of the cryptocurrency industry.
Analysts agree that new ATH is inevitable
Additionally, numerous conversations on AMBCrypto indicated that others are more bullish on Bitcoin price. One of them was Bitcoin University founder Evander Smart. According to Smart, BTC has incredible potential in both the short and long term.
When asked about price predictions, Smart said:
“We expect to hit a new all-time high by the end of the first quarter and could reach $200,000 by the end of the year. Bitcoin could grow over 150% in 2023 without Wall Street support. A little more than double that is very real, given the deep pockets of Wall Street involved. The legendary “Bitcoin bull market” began last year. This move ushered in a Bitcoin supercycle. ”
Mason Miller, president of AI and analytics company AMP ALGOS, expressed a similar view. From our discussion, Miller was convinced that BTC will soon reach $50,000.
However, unlike Smart, Miller noted that the new ATH will occur in Q2 2024. He based his prediction on the fact that Bitcoin's halving is scheduled for April. He pointed out:
“With the Bitcoin market charting its course, it is my opinion that Bitcoin’s trajectory toward the $50,000 support zone is inevitable and poised for a new all-time high. The upcoming Bitcoin halving will be a pivotal moment, and we can expect record performance for BTC by the end of Q2 2024.”
Just upload it for now?
A look at the daily chart of BTC/USD shows that these opinions may be valid. This is due to the position of the Exponential Moving Average (EMA). At the time of writing, the 20 EMA (blue) was above the 50 EMA (yellow).
In the short term, this can be considered a bullish trend for the coin.
The same was the case with 50EMAA and 200EMA (purple), which formed a golden cross. If this trend continues, BTC could be heading towards a new he-ATH within the next few months.
Another metric we evaluated was Awesome Oscillator (AO). At the time of writing, AO is at 2254.36, indicating that upward momentum is increasing.
If AO stays in positive territory, BTC could regain $47,000 and possibly move higher in the coming days.
Source: TradingView
Furthermore, the RSI and Aroon indicators showed signs that there are more buyers than people liquidating Bitcoin. The RSI was 61.58, but Aroon Up (orange) ranked higher than Aroon Down (blue).
The indicators on the 4-hour chart also match those on the daily timeframe. However, this time we focused on the Auto Fibonacci extension.
Note $52,900 and $64,307
From the chart below, the 0.618 Fib level is $48,146, indicating that BTC could reach that level soon. Once the aforementioned price is reached, the 0.618 level could also act as support for the coin.
Additionally, the Fib extension also showed that Bitcoin’s bullish potential is solid. This was due to the price of the 4.236 extension.
At the time of writing, the price for the 4.236 extension was $64,307. Therefore, in the medium to long term, BTC is likely to get very close to its previous ATH.
This possibility was also supported by accumulation/distribution (A/D). At the time of writing, A/D had risen to his 3.38 million, suggesting buying pressure was outstripping distribution.
Source: TradingView
Analyst predictions on X suggest that the price of Bitcoin may rise. For example, analyst Ali Martinez said BTC could expand to $52,900 in the short term.
Just hours before the expected on-the-spot decision #bitcoin ETF, TD Sequential Indicator is showing a buy signal. $BTC 4 hour chart!
This timely bullish signal, coupled with increased buying pressure, could fuel growth. #BTC Heading towards $48,100 and maybe… pic.twitter.com/aVFD2WzKui
— Ali (@ali_charts) January 10, 2024
Some argue that the new ATH does not yet exist.
However, AMBCrypto received a contrary opinion from one of the experts we spoke to. This time, we had a conversation with June Jia, owner of Canny Trading and quantitative researcher at GF Securities.
According to Jia, the price of Bitcoin will rise significantly in the long run. He noted that any potential increase in adoption could outpace the introduction of gold ETFs. But for 2024, Jia explained:
“However, I think the Bitcoin price in 2024 will still not reach historic highs. Since 2020, the Bitcoin price has maintained a high correlation with stock indexes, especially the Nasdaq index. In an interest rate environment, the economy becomes more unpredictable and fragile, and high interest rates have a significant dampening effect on risk assets such as stock markets and Bitcoin.”
Regarding Pi Cycle Top, AMBCrypto’s analysis showed that BTC is not overheating. Pi Cycle Top shows the position of the 111-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 350-day SMA. When the short EMA reaches the large EMA, the market is nearing the top.
In this case, the BTC price will undergo a correction. However, at the time of writing, the 111-day SMA was below the 350 SMA. Therefore, prices are likely to rise as indicated by some of the predictions above.
Source: Glassnode
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Like Jia, Truflation CEO Stefan Rust also agreed that BTC's market capitalization will soon compete with that of gold. He said,
“Bitcoin currently has a market capitalization of about $912 billion, but it could compete with gold, which is a market close to $14 trillion. From here it’s 15x, so there’s a long way to go, with only 2,100 coins left. Only 10,000 pieces.”
Regarding price predictions, Rust said that Bitcoin will reach $150,000 due to demand and an influx of new investors. He also said it could happen in the short term and, like Miller, cited the upcoming Bitcoin halving as a catalyst.
